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Voyagers Beyond

Uncertainty & Agency

How do I adapt when the target keeps moving?

Every piece of advice says adapt. Almost none of it says to what. When the thing you would adapt to changes every few months, adaptation as a strategy needs a different definition.

A first orientation

Adapting to a prediction is fragile, because the prediction is the part most likely to be wrong. A smaller move is sturdier: do something now that can be tested now, and let the result rather than the forecast tell you what to change.

The Second Door Plan is one way to do that. Take one problem people already ask you about, write down how you handle it, and let someone try it on a low-risk task. You learn something real this week without having to know where the target will be next year.